Once In A Lifetime, All The Time
Back in 2020, I wrote this (edited from a Twitter thread – RIP Twitter):
Our world is often full of seemingly impossible events, but they occur more frequently than we realize. To put it into perspective: one-in-a-million events happen to around 7,800 people every single day; this means that somewhere in the world, such an event occurs every 11 seconds. Likewise, one-in-a-billion events – the sort of occurrences we might think are so rare they’re practically impossible – happen to about 8 people every day, or one every 3 hours. As our global population grows, these incredibly improbable things will continue to happen more often, simply because there are more people around for them to happen to.
The challenge is that human brains aren’t wired to intuitively grasp these kinds of probabilities. We’re not naturally equipped to understand exponential growth, let alone the compounding effect...